FX Technical Weekly

Weekly Trend Duration and Support/Resistance

	TrendW	CURR	1 STD	2 STD	3 STD	ATR(13w)	S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
EURUSD	Up	4	6	12	18	2.73%	1.3328	1.3447	1.3569	1.3817	1.3941	1.4066
GBPUSD	Up	4	6	12	19	2.01%	1.5932	1.6037	1.6144	1.6361	1.6470	1.6579
AUDUSD	Up	2	7	13	20	2.59%	0.9887	0.9971	1.0056	1.0231	1.0318	1.0406
NZDUSD	Up	2	9	17	26	3.08%	0.7384	0.7458	0.7534	0.7689	0.7767	0.7845
USDJPY	Up	2	4	9	13	1.93%	81.60	82.11	82.64	83.71	84.24	84.78
USDCAD	Down	14	4	9	13	1.63%	0.9706	0.9758	0.9811	0.9918	0.9971	1.0025
USDCHF	Up	1	7	14	21	2.71%	0.9195	0.9276	0.9359	0.9529	0.9615	0.9700
EURJPY	Up	5	4	9	13	2.44%	111.15	112.04	112.94	114.79	115.71	116.64
EURGBP	Up	1	5	11	16	2.14%	0.8246	0.8304	0.8362	0.8482	0.8542	0.8602

-TrendW is weekly trend and CURR denotes how long the current trend has been underway in weeks. 1,2,3 STD are 1st,2nd, and 3rd standard deviations of the duration of trends measured over the last 150 weeks (3 years).

-ATR(13w) is 13 week average true range expressed as a percentage

-On the charts below, magenta bars/candles indicate key reversals (classic definition) from a 20 day high/low and a range for the week that is at least as large as 20 day ATR

The price charts contain RSI signals (comparison of RSI and price extremes) over 2 different periods, 26 and 52 weeks

Euro / US Dollar

Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The strong advance this week puts the bearish trend in question. The decline from 13861 is left as 2 equal waves, which is corrective. Multiple patterns could be unfolding from that level (triangle, flat or less likely at this point…an impulse). Trading above 13744 would put 13861 and then 14000 in focus.

Joel - The market looks to be in the process of seeking out a fresh lower top below 1.3745 ahead of the next downside extension towards the measured move objective off of a head & shoulders top formation which comes in by 1.3300. Look for confirmation of a fresh lower top on a break back below 1.3425. As such, we like the idea of fading rallies towards 1.3700, with only a break back above 1.3745 negating short-term outlook and giving reason for pause.

British Pound / US Dollar

Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The GBPUSD opened at its low and closed near its high last week. 16300 seems a foregone conclusion at this point, with resistance then coming in at 16457. Keep the long term pattern in mind, which I believe is a triangle from the January 2009 low. The pattern should result in weakness towards 14780 (wave D) in the months ahead. The lower triangle line intersects with 14780 in April.

Joel - The market largely remains locked in some consolidation after stalling out by key resistance at 1.6300 several days back. From here, it is difficult to establish a clear directional bias and we will need to see a sustained break above 1.6300 or back below 1.5960 for additional clarity. In the interim, we remain sidelined.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – With a potentially completed Elliott wave pattern (5 waves) from the 2008 low (6000), the risk of a sharp reversal and decline does remain. However, bears need a break below 9803 in order to confirm such a reversal and a move above 10256 would shift focus higher following a bullish triangle break towards 10500 or even 11000.

Joel - Although setbacks have stalled out for now ahead of 0.9800, we continue to favor risks for additional downside and like the idea of selling into rallies. Ultimately, we see the market in the process of carving out a major top and any rallies from here should be well capped below 1.0150 on a close basis. Only back above 1.0200 gives reason for concern, while below 0.9945 should accelerate to 0.9800 and below.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – After trading to a fresh 2011 low, the NZDUSD rebounded to close at its 13 week average. A drop below 7342 is needed in order to confirm that the NZDUSD completed wave b of a flat in late 2010. Until then, bullish potential does remain with the setback from 7975 serving as consolidation.

Joel - Rallies continue to be very well capped above 0.7800 and the market has once again stalled out above the figure in favor of yet another bearish reversal. From here, we see risks for additional declines towards 0.7300 over the coming sessions, with any intraday rallies expected to be well capped ahead of 0.7700. A daily close below 0.7500 should accelerate declines.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – “One can view the USDJPY action since November as consolidation prior to a continuation of weakness or a basing pattern that will lead to a break higher.” Last week’s strong rally clarifies the picture as I had pegged 8321 as the bullish pivot. The break above that level favors the idea that the sideways trade since the November low is a bullish base rather than a triangle. Focus is on 8450 and 8110 is critical to the bullish bias. A 26 week bearish RSI signal was triggered last week so caution is warranted.

Joel - The market continues to remain extremely well bid, with the latest surge back above 83.00 really encouraging longer-term recovery prospects and opening the door for a potential break of key topside resistance by 84.50 over the coming days. Longer-term cyclical studies certainly suggest that the market could be poised for a major bullish reversal and we would look for a break and weekly close back above 84.50 to help confirm outlook. Any dips from here should be well supported ahead of 82.50, while only a break back below 82.00 would concern.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The 13 week average continues to hold and the downside must be respected. Focus is on thedownward sloping trendline drawn off of the August and October lows as well as 9710 (February 2008 low). Last week’s candle did close as a gravestone doji, which indicates indecision. 10057 defines the trend.

Joel - Daily studies are starting to look a little stretched, and this in conjunction with longer-term cyclical studies which warn of a major base, leave us looking for opportunities to buy rather then selling into the downtrend. The 0.9800 figure seems to be offering itself as a formidable support zone for now, and any dips back towards or slightly below the figure over the coming sessions are viewed as an excellent opportunity to establish a very playable counter-trend long position. Ultimately, only a daily close back below 0.9750 would delay outlook and give reason for pause.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – I maintain that “a major low was put in place in the final week of 2010.” The low, right at 9300, was just 50 pips below where the decline from 11730 would equal the decline from 12299. What’s more, the low occurred at a support line and was accompanied with RSI divergence. Based on long term wave structure, this rally from 9300 is probably a C wave and should be sharp. Trading above 9784 would bolster the bullish outlook and shift focus to the December high at 10065. A drop under 9300 would negate the bullish pattern and bias.

Joel - The market has been in the process of pulling back after stalling out ahead of key short-term resistance by 0.9785 in the previous week. Still we see any additional declines well propped above 0.9425 (minor 78.6% fib retrace) on a close basis and look for the formation of a fresh higher low ahead of the next major upside extension back through 0.9785 and towards more critical resistance by 1.0070 further up. Only a close below 0.9400 will give reason for concern.

Euro / Japanese Yen

Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie – The EURJPY path is not especially clear. A diamond pattern appears to be forming since the June 2010 low and a break above 11500, which has capped gains since July 2010, would shift focus to the February 2010 low at 11964. With the 20 day average holding as support this month, a bullish outcome is looking more and more likely. The 52 week average is potential resistance at 11417 and both 26 and 52 week bearish RSI signals were registered this week.

Joel - The market remains very well supported on dips with the overall price action defined as consolidative. However, given where the market trades historically, we continue to like the idea of being buyers down by current levels in favor of a major bullish reversal over the coming months. For now, key resistance comes in by the multi-week consolidation highs at 115.70, and a break and close back above this level will be required to officially force a shift in the structure. In the interim, buying dips towards 110.00 is favored.

Euro / British Pound

Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

Jamie - A long term complex 4th wave correction remains underway in the EURGBP. Expectations are for continued weakness towards a channel line that intersects with the former 4th wave extreme at 7692 at the end of April. Price remains below important moving averages (20 and 50 day). A bearish stance is warranted against 8672.

Joel - The market continues to adhere to some major falling trend-line resistance, with the latest topside failure off of the channel top opening an acceleration of declines back below 0.8500. From here the risks are for additional declines over the medium-term with sights set on a move to fresh yearly lows by critical psychological barriers at 0.8000. Ultimately, only back above 0.8700 would negate and give reason for concern.

Source

http://www.dailyfx.com

原油穩步前進的中國數據，黃金測試一三五三美元 Suppo

原油穩步前進的中國數據
原油（WTI）的-八十七點四八美元/ / $0.75 //0.86％
評論：原油是稍微拉開一周上檔，因為價格近期漲勢繼續鞏固已建立的價格達到或超過三位數門檻。重要經濟數據將公佈在未來的一周內，其中最重要的是中國一月份消費物價指數。期望為5.4％，比去年同期增長了4.6％，而前一個月以來的最高同比閱讀2008年7月。中國已經三次上調利率10月以來為了打擊通貨膨脹。市場將密切研究最新消費物價指數報告，以評估是否加息是在醞釀之中。
技術展望：測試支持價格在1月低近85美元。一個突破這個關口金額將大幅下滑的逆轉態勢，開門長期銷售。短期阻力線就在88.06美元，61.8％斐波納契回撤反彈，從一月份的低

品- 金屬

黃金測試一千三百五十三美元支持

黃金 -一千三百六十三點九五美元/ / $0.15 // 0.01％

評論：儘管一晚一周拋售，黃金設法勉強維持上週的收益，但價格仍然低迷行動作為 ETF的持有量繼續下降中明顯缺乏催化劑的金屬。全球經濟前景似乎有所改善，通貨膨脹在發達經濟體仍然相對較低。如石油，黃金可能會在本週的線索來自中國 CPI數據。

技術展望：價格保持略高於支持一千三百五十二點五〇美元，38.2％斐波納契回撤1/3-1/28下滑，有利空蜻蜓十字線燭台指著褪色看漲勢頭，並暗示下出現逆轉超前。

銀 -三十〇點〇九美元/ / $0.12 //0.39％

評論：銀是30美元以下後反彈超過這個水平後，首次在一月份的最後一周。

金/銀微升至45.4，接近2006年4月以來的最低水平。 （金/銀價格比措施的相對價值/性能兩個貴金屬。較高的比率表明黃金表現好，而低比率表明白銀表現好）

技術展望：價格仍低於76.4％棲息斐波納契回撤1/3-1/28下滑，前阻力水平作為支持。從這裡開始，公牛隊的目標是挑戰30年高點三十一點二四美元。

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Euro H&S Top Could be in the Works; Close Below 1.3570 Confirms

Rallies in the Euro have stalled out as we had anticipated above 1.3700 with the market once again looking to roll back over in favor of a more meaningful decline. Last week, we wrote in our commentary that we wouldn’t have been surprised to see initial Euro declines stall out on a close basis above 1.3570 in favor of a potential head & shoulders topping formation. Sure enough, the market failed to close below 1.3570 last week and rallied back above 1.3700 in what now looks to be an attempt to carve the right shoulder of the H&S top. From here, we see any additional rallies well capped by 1.3800 ahead of a fresh downside extension back below 1.3505 and towards the 1.3200 area further down.

We believe that any future weakness in the Euro, will ultimately translate into broader currency weakness and we also contend that this will result in some relative underperformance in the commodity bloc. Earlier in the week the Canadian Dollar started to weaken, and the Australian and New Zealand Dollars are also really starting to show signs of vulnerability at current levels. A combination of softer economic data out of Australia, softer economic data out of China and tighter monetary policy from the PBOC should all continue to weigh on the antipodean going forward.

While the latest employment data out of Australia was on the surface relatively in line with forecasts, the 8k decline in full-time jobs is nothing to smile about and we believe is a red flag for an impending slowdown in the Australian economy. Regrettably, we exited our short AUD/USD from 1.0100 on Wednesday just above cost, and will have to wait for another opportunity get involved. We are however still short the Australian Dollar though the Euro and have greatly benefited from that exposure in recent sessions.

Wednesday’s Bernanke reiteration of higher unemployment and lower inflation did not help the Dollar, but at the end of the day, nothing new was really said, and any selling of the Greenback on the back of the Fed Chair’s remarks, was easily offset by broader market flows. Comments later in the day from Fed Lockhart also helped to generate some fresh bids in the buck after the Fed official said that QE3 was not needed.

Looking ahead, the key event risk for the day comes in the form of the Bank of England rate decision out at 12:00GMT. No change is expected on either the rates or asset purchase target, although we could see some volatility on any accompanying headlines that provide additional insights into the direction of policy going forward. In our opinion, the risks are tilted to the downside for Sterling, with the growing expectation for the start of a tightening cycle perhaps too aggressive. While economic data has certainly been improving, and inflation is elevated, we believe there is still a critical need for ultra accommodative policy (just like in the US).

On the data front, Swiss SECO consumer confidence (10 expected) is out at 6:45GMT, followed by Swiss inflation data (-0.2% expected) at 8:15GMT. At 9:00GMT, the ECB publishes its monthly report, while UK industrial production (0.5% expected) and manufacturing production (0.4% expected) then follow at 9:30GMT. In North America, Canada house prices (0.2% expected) are out at 13:30GMT, along with US initial jobless claims (410k expected) and continuing claims (3900k expected). US wholesale inventories (0.8% expected) are then out at 15:00GMT, with the monthly budget statement (-$60B expected) capping things off later in the day at 19:00GMT. On the official circuit, Fed Lockhart is back on the wires on the topic of fiscal policy at 17:45GMT.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

EUR/USD:The latest rallies have stalled out well ahead of 1.3860 with the market finding some resistance by an ideal right shoulder top in the mid-1.3700’s ahead of the latest minor setbacks. From here, the risks are tilted to the downside, with a break and close back below 1.3570 to like trigger the H&S topping formation and open a fresh downside extension towards the 1.3200 area over the coming days. Any rallies should continue to be well capped ahead of 1.3800 with only a break back above the figure to give reason for concern.

USD/JPY: Despite the latest setbacks below 82.00 which had put the pressure back on the downside, the market remains well bid on dips. Last Friday’s price action was highly constructive and significant, with the market putting in an intense bullish outside day which consumed the previous 4 daily ranges. From here, we look for continued upside back towards 83.70 over the coming sessions, with a break above to accelerate towards more critical resistance at 84.50. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 81.50 with only a daily close back below 81.00 to negate.

GBP/USD: The market looks to have once again found a meaningful top by the 1.6300 barrier, with the latest setbacks resulting in a series of daily lower tops. From here we look for a break and close back below 1.6025 to confirm bias and accelerate declines back towards 1.5800 over the coming sessions. A daily close back above 1.6200 would give reason for concern, while ultimately only back above 1.6300 negates.

USD/CHF: Although the longer-term market remains under some intense pressure with the latest declines stalling just shy of the late 2010 record lows at 0.9300, inability to establish fresh record lows followed by a break back above 0.9500 leaves us constructive with our outlook from here. Lat Friday’s daily close above 0.9540 confirms and should help to accelerate gains towards 0.9785. Any intraday setbacks should now be well supported ahead of 0.9450.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

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Gold - FOREX Correlations Firm as Interest Rate Expectations Rise

Gold has been receiving an increasing amount of attention recently as the metal soars to new record levels. But you don’t have to trade gold to benefit from the metal’s recent volatility. In fact, many of the popular currency pairs have been moving in tandem with gold, offering forex traders an opportunity to piggyback on the uptrend or bet against it, with the added benefit of trading within the world’s deepest and most liquid market.

The following table includes the correlation between gold and the most popular currency pairs over various timeframes. A value close to +1 indicates a strong positive relationship between gold and the pair, while a value close to -1 indicates a strong negative relationship.

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Gold	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	NZD/USD	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF
15 Min, 3 Day	-0.50	0.92	0.86	0.03	0.80	-0.75	-0.57
60 Min, 1 Week	-0.31	0.76	0.69	0.10	0.32	-0.60	-0.46
60 Min, 2 Weeks	-0.45	0.12	-0.08	-0.43	-0.31	0.17	0.40
Daily, 1 Month	0.32	0.91	0.42	-0.14	-0.66	-0.73	-0.80

Weekly Commentary: Gold – FOREX correlations fared better than last week, as rising interest rate expectations for some of the major central banks spurred selling in gold and high-yielding currencies. The correlation between gold and AUD/USD firmed to a solid 0.76 from close to zero last week, but that between gold and USD/CHF was close to unchanged at -0.46.

The divergence between the Aussie and Franc- the two currencies that have historically had the strongest relationship with gold- can likely be attributed to the fact that the Aussie is a high-yielding currency, while the Franc is a low-yielding currency. A recent increase in interest rate expectations for the ECB and BOE, for example, have reduced the relative appeal of the Aussie as much of said appeal comes from its yield. The Franc, on the other hand, has been supported by a general perception of safety rather than any yield considerations. Nevertheless, the Aussie and Franc should continue to move in the same direction over longer periods and thus we continue to recommend both for proxy gold exposure in the forex markets.

As for gold specifically, we saw a significant breakdown this week, with the metal finally breaking through support near $1360 after several attempts. As mentioned previously, interest rate expectations have been rising for many of the major central banks, spurred by hawkish commentary from certain policymakers and an uptick in inflation. Market expectations, as implied by overnight index swaps, suggest that the European Central Bank may raise rates three times over the next twelve months (75bps total). Expectations for the Bank of England are only slightly lower.

Meanwhile, gold ETF holdings have tumbled almost 1.6 million troy ounces since their recent peak, an indication of that investors are selling the metal. As investment demand has been the single most important driver of gold prices on the margin, the impact is significant. We can’t be sure whether the aforementioned increase in interest rate expectations is what is spurring this selling, but it is likely one of the many factors impacting trading.

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Gold prices fell as gold ETF holdings declined for a fifth straight week. Overall, gold ETF holdings are now down 1.6 million troy ounces from their peak near 68 million set back in December.

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