原油穩步前進的中國數據，黃金測試一三五三美元 Suppo

原油穩步前進的中國數據
原油（WTI）的-八十七點四八美元/ / $0.75 //0.86％
評論：原油是稍微拉開一周上檔，因為價格近期漲勢繼續鞏固已建立的價格達到或超過三位數門檻。重要經濟數據將公佈在未來的一周內，其中最重要的是中國一月份消費物價指數。期望為5.4％，比去年同期增長了4.6％，而前一個月以來的最高同比閱讀2008年7月。中國已經三次上調利率10月以來為了打擊通貨膨脹。市場將密切研究最新消費物價指數報告，以評估是否加息是在醞釀之中。
技術展望：測試支持價格在1月低近85美元。一個突破這個關口金額將大幅下滑的逆轉態勢，開門長期銷售。短期阻力線就在88.06美元，61.8％斐波納契回撤反彈，從一月份的低

品- 金屬

黃金測試一千三百五十三美元支持

黃金 -一千三百六十三點九五美元/ / $0.15 // 0.01％

評論：儘管一晚一周拋售，黃金設法勉強維持上週的收益，但價格仍然低迷行動作為 ETF的持有量繼續下降中明顯缺乏催化劑的金屬。全球經濟前景似乎有所改善，通貨膨脹在發達經濟體仍然相對較低。如石油，黃金可能會在本週的線索來自中國 CPI數據。

技術展望：價格保持略高於支持一千三百五十二點五〇美元，38.2％斐波納契回撤1/3-1/28下滑，有利空蜻蜓十字線燭台指著褪色看漲勢頭，並暗示下出現逆轉超前。

銀 -三十〇點〇九美元/ / $0.12 //0.39％

評論：銀是30美元以下後反彈超過這個水平後，首次在一月份的最後一周。

金/銀微升至45.4，接近2006年4月以來的最低水平。 （金/銀價格比措施的相對價值/性能兩個貴金屬。較高的比率表明黃金表現好，而低比率表明白銀表現好）

技術展望：價格仍低於76.4％棲息斐波納契回撤1/3-1/28下滑，前阻力水平作為支持。從這裡開始，公牛隊的目標是挑戰30年高點三十一點二四美元。

對於實時新聞與分析，請訪問http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news

要接收將來的文章通過電子郵件，請聯繫伊利亞在ispivak@dailyfx.com

DailyFX提供外匯新聞報導的經濟和政治事件，影響貨幣市場。

學習外匯交易帳戶與自由練習和圖表從 FXCM。

Source

http://www.dailyfx.com

Euro H&S Top Could be in the Works; Close Below 1.3570 Confirms

Rallies in the Euro have stalled out as we had anticipated above 1.3700 with the market once again looking to roll back over in favor of a more meaningful decline. Last week, we wrote in our commentary that we wouldn’t have been surprised to see initial Euro declines stall out on a close basis above 1.3570 in favor of a potential head & shoulders topping formation. Sure enough, the market failed to close below 1.3570 last week and rallied back above 1.3700 in what now looks to be an attempt to carve the right shoulder of the H&S top. From here, we see any additional rallies well capped by 1.3800 ahead of a fresh downside extension back below 1.3505 and towards the 1.3200 area further down.

We believe that any future weakness in the Euro, will ultimately translate into broader currency weakness and we also contend that this will result in some relative underperformance in the commodity bloc. Earlier in the week the Canadian Dollar started to weaken, and the Australian and New Zealand Dollars are also really starting to show signs of vulnerability at current levels. A combination of softer economic data out of Australia, softer economic data out of China and tighter monetary policy from the PBOC should all continue to weigh on the antipodean going forward.

While the latest employment data out of Australia was on the surface relatively in line with forecasts, the 8k decline in full-time jobs is nothing to smile about and we believe is a red flag for an impending slowdown in the Australian economy. Regrettably, we exited our short AUD/USD from 1.0100 on Wednesday just above cost, and will have to wait for another opportunity get involved. We are however still short the Australian Dollar though the Euro and have greatly benefited from that exposure in recent sessions.

Wednesday’s Bernanke reiteration of higher unemployment and lower inflation did not help the Dollar, but at the end of the day, nothing new was really said, and any selling of the Greenback on the back of the Fed Chair’s remarks, was easily offset by broader market flows. Comments later in the day from Fed Lockhart also helped to generate some fresh bids in the buck after the Fed official said that QE3 was not needed.

Looking ahead, the key event risk for the day comes in the form of the Bank of England rate decision out at 12:00GMT. No change is expected on either the rates or asset purchase target, although we could see some volatility on any accompanying headlines that provide additional insights into the direction of policy going forward. In our opinion, the risks are tilted to the downside for Sterling, with the growing expectation for the start of a tightening cycle perhaps too aggressive. While economic data has certainly been improving, and inflation is elevated, we believe there is still a critical need for ultra accommodative policy (just like in the US).

On the data front, Swiss SECO consumer confidence (10 expected) is out at 6:45GMT, followed by Swiss inflation data (-0.2% expected) at 8:15GMT. At 9:00GMT, the ECB publishes its monthly report, while UK industrial production (0.5% expected) and manufacturing production (0.4% expected) then follow at 9:30GMT. In North America, Canada house prices (0.2% expected) are out at 13:30GMT, along with US initial jobless claims (410k expected) and continuing claims (3900k expected). US wholesale inventories (0.8% expected) are then out at 15:00GMT, with the monthly budget statement (-$60B expected) capping things off later in the day at 19:00GMT. On the official circuit, Fed Lockhart is back on the wires on the topic of fiscal policy at 17:45GMT.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

EUR/USD:The latest rallies have stalled out well ahead of 1.3860 with the market finding some resistance by an ideal right shoulder top in the mid-1.3700’s ahead of the latest minor setbacks. From here, the risks are tilted to the downside, with a break and close back below 1.3570 to like trigger the H&S topping formation and open a fresh downside extension towards the 1.3200 area over the coming days. Any rallies should continue to be well capped ahead of 1.3800 with only a break back above the figure to give reason for concern.

USD/JPY: Despite the latest setbacks below 82.00 which had put the pressure back on the downside, the market remains well bid on dips. Last Friday’s price action was highly constructive and significant, with the market putting in an intense bullish outside day which consumed the previous 4 daily ranges. From here, we look for continued upside back towards 83.70 over the coming sessions, with a break above to accelerate towards more critical resistance at 84.50. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 81.50 with only a daily close back below 81.00 to negate.

GBP/USD: The market looks to have once again found a meaningful top by the 1.6300 barrier, with the latest setbacks resulting in a series of daily lower tops. From here we look for a break and close back below 1.6025 to confirm bias and accelerate declines back towards 1.5800 over the coming sessions. A daily close back above 1.6200 would give reason for concern, while ultimately only back above 1.6300 negates.

USD/CHF: Although the longer-term market remains under some intense pressure with the latest declines stalling just shy of the late 2010 record lows at 0.9300, inability to establish fresh record lows followed by a break back above 0.9500 leaves us constructive with our outlook from here. Lat Friday’s daily close above 0.9540 confirms and should help to accelerate gains towards 0.9785. Any intraday setbacks should now be well supported ahead of 0.9450.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, email jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

If you wish to discuss this or any other topic feel free to visit our Forum Page.

Source

http://www.dailyfx.com.

Gold - FOREX Correlations Firm as Interest Rate Expectations Rise

Gold has been receiving an increasing amount of attention recently as the metal soars to new record levels. But you don’t have to trade gold to benefit from the metal’s recent volatility. In fact, many of the popular currency pairs have been moving in tandem with gold, offering forex traders an opportunity to piggyback on the uptrend or bet against it, with the added benefit of trading within the world’s deepest and most liquid market.

The following table includes the correlation between gold and the most popular currency pairs over various timeframes. A value close to +1 indicates a strong positive relationship between gold and the pair, while a value close to -1 indicates a strong negative relationship.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gold	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	NZD/USD	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF
15 Min, 3 Day	-0.50	0.92	0.86	0.03	0.80	-0.75	-0.57
60 Min, 1 Week	-0.31	0.76	0.69	0.10	0.32	-0.60	-0.46
60 Min, 2 Weeks	-0.45	0.12	-0.08	-0.43	-0.31	0.17	0.40
Daily, 1 Month	0.32	0.91	0.42	-0.14	-0.66	-0.73	-0.80

Weekly Commentary: Gold – FOREX correlations fared better than last week, as rising interest rate expectations for some of the major central banks spurred selling in gold and high-yielding currencies. The correlation between gold and AUD/USD firmed to a solid 0.76 from close to zero last week, but that between gold and USD/CHF was close to unchanged at -0.46.

The divergence between the Aussie and Franc- the two currencies that have historically had the strongest relationship with gold- can likely be attributed to the fact that the Aussie is a high-yielding currency, while the Franc is a low-yielding currency. A recent increase in interest rate expectations for the ECB and BOE, for example, have reduced the relative appeal of the Aussie as much of said appeal comes from its yield. The Franc, on the other hand, has been supported by a general perception of safety rather than any yield considerations. Nevertheless, the Aussie and Franc should continue to move in the same direction over longer periods and thus we continue to recommend both for proxy gold exposure in the forex markets.

As for gold specifically, we saw a significant breakdown this week, with the metal finally breaking through support near $1360 after several attempts. As mentioned previously, interest rate expectations have been rising for many of the major central banks, spurred by hawkish commentary from certain policymakers and an uptick in inflation. Market expectations, as implied by overnight index swaps, suggest that the European Central Bank may raise rates three times over the next twelve months (75bps total). Expectations for the Bank of England are only slightly lower.

Meanwhile, gold ETF holdings have tumbled almost 1.6 million troy ounces since their recent peak, an indication of that investors are selling the metal. As investment demand has been the single most important driver of gold prices on the margin, the impact is significant. We can’t be sure whether the aforementioned increase in interest rate expectations is what is spurring this selling, but it is likely one of the many factors impacting trading.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gold prices fell as gold ETF holdings declined for a fifth straight week. Overall, gold ETF holdings are now down 1.6 million troy ounces from their peak near 68 million set back in December.

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.

FOREX: Dollar’s Biggest Rally in Two Weeks Does Little to Confirm a Bullish Reversal

• Dollar’s Biggest Rally in Two Weeks Does Little to Confirm a Bullish Reversal
• Euro: Efforts to Fill in Financial Gaps Offers the Euro Another Temporary Boost
• British Pound Reacts to a Drop in Business Orders with an Inflation Angle
• Canadian Dollar Slips before Retail Sales Data Gives a Bearing on Growth
• Japanese Yen faces Long Term Problems as CDS Spreads Swell in the Face of Debt
• New Zealand Dollar Finds Little Strength in Retail Sales, Business Confidence Figures

Dollar’s Biggest Rally in Two Weeks Does Little to Confirm a Bullish Reversal

It’s difficult to get a read on the market’s Thursday. On one extreme, we see commodities plunge and drag commodity currencies with it. On the opposite side of this spectrum, the fundamentally-troubled euro surged and Japanese yen tumbled. And, in the middle of it all, the US dollar put in for its biggest daily advance in two weeks. This seems a very contradiction in its nature given what we have come to expect from correlations. But that is where the disconnect should be traced to – relationships between different assets can and do change. The past 24 hours, we have been dealt the same general story that has prevailed over the past few months: the absence of a prominent underlying driver. With fear surrounding Europe temporarily sidelined and China’s long-term issues still simmering (they will almost certainly hit an explosive point); each currency and asset class is finding itself jostled by personalized drivers.

Looking for the specific catalysts for the greenback Thursday, there was a sufficient mixture of risk aversion and improved fundamental outlook to guide the Dollar Index higher. From the investor optimism side of the coin, many of the benchmark equities indexes were aiming lower through the end of their respective sessions. Tracking this performance, the Hang Seng dropped 1.7 percent and the FTSE 100 dropped 1.8 percent; though the S&P 500 would only nudge 0.13 percent lower. In the early Asian session, momentum was stoked by the release of the 4Q Chinese data. While the year-to-date GDP reading printed a remarkable 10.3 percent performance; the confidence this would otherwise stoke in international trade was dampened by the threat that a 4.6 percent clip of inflation poses (steps to further curb output and returns). The other role the Chinese growth figures play is as a leading indicator for activity in the US and other advanced economies. The advance US 4Q GDP figures are due next Friday; and you can bet, they will be closely watched.

In the meantime, the US economic docket would perform a necessary role of bolstering the perception of the dollar. Aside from the Philly Fed manufacturing index, everything listed offered a tangible improvement. Initial jobless claims marked their biggest drop since February of last year and the Leading Indicators index was well above its consensus. But, it was the existing home sales figures that really caught the market off guard. The 12.3 percent swell in sales was the biggest on records going back to 1999; but it bears mention that 36 percent of these sales were on distressed properties and 2010 was the worst year for sales since 1997. There is still a long way to go before this economy is outperforming.

Related: Discuss the Dollar in the DailyFX Forum, John’s Analyst Picks: GBPJPY and AUDUSD Lead Notable Cross Opportunities

Euro: Efforts to Fill in Financial Gaps Offers the Euro Another Temporary Boost

Though the euro was slightly down on the day against the benchmark dollar; a look at the currency’s performance elsewhere offers a very different perspective of health. The shared currency surged against the Swiss franc, British pound and high-yield commodity currencies alike even though the fundamental backdrop was only modestly improved. When analyzing the fundamental health of the euro, the first thing we still go to is the level of risk associated to a spreading financial crisis in the region. Perhaps the biggest headline was the news that Spain was looking to recapitalize its ‘cajas’ (savings banks) ahead of a second round of EU stress tests. This was likely a necessary step and a good catalyst for the crisis to fell Spanish boarders; but the gesture may ultimately be too little too late. In the meantime, Goldman Sachs’ head of Fixed Income warned Greece would not likely repay all its bondholders, Moody’s said it was reviewing Portugal’s exports as it related to its sovereign credit rating and Irish Prime Minister called an election for March 2011. These are not immediate threats and can be conveniently ignored – that is until fear swells once again. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the German IFO business sentiment data is worthy of your attention.

British Pound Reacts to a Drop in Business Orders with an Inflation Angle

A disappointing indicator for economic growth should lead a currency lower, right? Not necessarily. For sterling traders, the CBI business optimism survey is a second tier economic indicator; but it does give insight into an important topic: will the UK be able to grow its way through austerity? Optimism amongst business leaders seemed to pump up from the previous reading’s lull; but the measure on export orders showed an even report of those seeing growth and those seeing contraction; while total orders marked a sharp turn for the negative. The saving grace for this particular report was the prices received component, which is just off a two-decade low. This is yet another growth reading that produces an indirect boost to inflation. And, so we have interest rate speculation to offset growth potential yet again.

Canadian Dollar Slips before Retail Sales Data Gives a Bearing on Growth

The Canadian dollar took a significant tumble Thursday, helped along by the general underperformance of commodities. The sharp drop in crude certainly didn’t help the picture. As for event risk, the Leading Indicators figure gave little boost to the economic outlook. Looking ahead to tomorrow; retail sales figures will be a higher-level event risk. Will it bolster growth expectations and revive interest rate speculation?

Japanese Yen faces Long Term Problems as CDS Spreads Swell in the Face of Debt

Evaluating the Japanese yen is generally an effort to establish the ebb and flow of carry; because the currency seems to be permanently branded as a funding currency. However, we have seen the yen surge despite a rise in risk appetite that would be seen as bolstering carry. Perhaps what is needed is an additional booster. With CDS spreads hitting a six-month high; we can see a clear evaluation of the country.

New Zealand Dollar Finds Little Strength in Retail Sales, Business Confidence Figures

The kiwi dollar’s connection to commodities and risk appetite trends is so strong that it seems to overwhelm regular fundamental trends. On the docket early Friday, we had both retail sales for November and a December business sentiment survey. Both were better than expected; but NZDUSD would do little to recover lost ground through Thursday’s session. Perhaps we are waiting for next week’s RBNZ rate decision.

Tell us what you think of this article!

For Real Time Forex News, visit: http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/

**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to www.dailyfx.com/calendar

ECONOMIC DATA

Next 24 Hours

Currency	GMT	Release	Survey	Previous	Comments
NZD	21:30	Business NZ PMI (DEC)	-	52.7	Ticks up to 53.1
NZD	21:45	Retail Sales (MoM) (NOV)	1.1%	-2.4%	Better than expected at 1.5%
NZD	21:45	Retail Sales Ex-Auto (MoM) (NOV)	0.5%	-1.6%	Worse than expected at -0.2%
JPY		Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report	-	-	No surprises expected
AUD	0:30	Import Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)	-	0.7%	Export prices surge with commodities
AUD	0:30	Export Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)	-	7.8%
AUD	0:30	RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (DEC)	-	342M	Typically little variation in this data
JPY	4:30	All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (NOV)	0.2%	-0.2%	Would be first increase in 4 months
EUR	7:45	French Business Confidence Indicator (JAN)	-	103	All these French indicators have been steadily trending higher
EUR	7:45	French Own-Company Production Outlook (JAN)	-	8
EUR	7:45	French Production Outlook Indicator (JAN)	-	10
CHF	8:00	Money Supply M3 (YoY) (DEC)	-	6.4%	Has not translated into inflation
CHF	8:00	Real Estate Index Family Homes (4Q)	-	384.3	All-time high house prices
EUR	9:00	German IFO Business Climate (JAN)	109.9	109.9	These German economic indicators are sitting at record highs
EUR	9:00	German IFO Current Assessment (JAN)	113.2	112.9
EUR	9:00	German IFO Expectations (JAN)	106.5	106.9
GBP	9:30	Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)	-0.2%	0.3%	A modest month-over-moth decline is forecast, but overall trend is for steady growth over last year
GBP	9:30	Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC)	1.3%	1.8%
GBP	9:30	Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (DEC)	-0.2%	0.3%
GBP	9:30	Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (DEC)	1.1%	1.1%
CAD	13:30	Retail Sales (MoM) (NOV)	0.4%	0.8%	Would be the sixth increase in as many months
CAD	13:30	Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (NOV)	0.4%	0.9%
Currency	GMT	Upcoming Events & Speeches
-	-:-	-

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE - 18:00 GMT

Currency	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	NZD/USD	EUR/JPY	GBP/JPY
Resist 2	1.3615	1.6420	89.00	1.0000	1.0922	1.0600	0.8230	127.60	146.05
Resist 1	1.3534	1.6034	86.00	0.9775	1.0750	1.0200	0.8000	120.00	140.00
Spot	1.3466	1.5983	82.10	0.9553	0.9956	0.9974	0.7652	110.56	131.22
Support 1	1.2900	1.5312	80.00	0.9300	0.9800	0.9600	0.6850	103.80	125.00
Support 2	1.2585	1.5186	75.00	0.9000	0.9700	0.9375	0.6585	100.00	119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency	USD/MXN	USD/TRY	USD/ZAR	USD/HKD	USD/SGD		Currency	USD/SEK	USD/DKK	USD/NOK
Resist 2	13.8500	1.6755	7.2790	7.8165	1.4945		Resist 2	7.7500	5.7800	6.2750
Resist 1	12.5000	1.5931	7.1750	7.8075	1.4655		Resist 1	7.5800	5.6625	6.1150
Spot	12.0875	1.5491	6.9937	7.7789	1.2825		Spot	6.6260	5.5339	5.8232
Support 1	11.7200	1.4724	6.4000	7.7490	1.2750		Support 1	6.4500	5.2625	5.7030
Support 2	11.4400	1.3475	5.9200	7.7450	1.2500		Support 2	6.1250	5.1000	5.5200

INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT

Currency	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	NZD/USD	EUR/JPY	GBP/JPY
Resist 2	1.3487	1.6004	82.17	0.9566	0.9965	1.0026	0.7707	110.65	131.33
Resist 1	1.3476	1.5994	82.14	0.9559	0.9961	1.0000	0.7680	110.60	131.28
Pivot	1.3467	1.5986	82.07	0.9554	0.9955	0.9983	0.7661	110.52	131.18
Support 1	1.3456	1.5976	82.04	0.9547	0.9951	0.9957	0.7634	110.47	131.13
Support 2	1.3447	1.5968	81.97	0.9542	0.9945	0.9940	0.7615	110.39	131.03

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\

Currency	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	NZD/USD	EUR/JPY	GBP/JPY
Resist. 3	1.3647	1.6153	83.03	0.9670	1.0060	1.0109	0.7758	112.04	132.88
Resist. 2	1.3602	1.6110	82.80	0.9641	1.0034	1.0075	0.7731	111.67	132.47
Resist. 1	1.3557	1.6068	82.57	0.9611	1.0008	1.0042	0.7705	111.30	132.05
Spot	1.3466	1.5983	82.10	0.9553	0.9956	0.9974	0.7652	110.56	131.22
Support 1	1.3375	1.5898	81.63	0.9495	0.9904	0.9906	0.7599	109.82	130.39
Support 2	1.3330	1.5856	81.40	0.9465	0.9878	0.9873	0.7573	109.45	129.97
Support 3	1.3285	1.5813	81.17	0.9436	0.9852	0.9839	0.7546	109.08	129.56

v

Written by: John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.co