M RoC | BB | BBI | W RoC | BB | BBI | D RoC | BB | BBI | MPIV | |
EURUSD | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
GBPUSD | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
AUDUSD | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
NZDUSD | 1 | 1 | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | ||
USDJPY | (2) | (1) | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
USDCAD | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
USDCHF | (2) | (1) | (2) | (1) | U | (2) | (1) | (1) | ||
EURJPY | (1) | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |||
EURGBP | (1) | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
EURCHF | (2) | (1) | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | D | 1 | ||
EURCAD | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
EURAUD | (1) | (1) | U | 2 | 1 | (1) | (1) | 1 | ||
EURNZD | (1) | 3 | 2 | 1 | (1) | (1) | 1 | |||
GBPJPY | (1) | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |||
GBPCHF | (1) | (1) | U | (1) | (1) | U | (1) | 1 | D | 0 |
GBPCAD | (1) | (1) | 1 | (2) | U | 1 | (1) | 0 | ||
GBPAUD | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (1) | (1) | |||
GBPNZD | (1) | (1) | 1 | (1) | (2) | (1) | (1) | |||
AUDJPY | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
AUDCHF | (1) | (1) | (1) | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
AUDCAD | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
AUDNZD | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | (1) | (1) | 1 | |||
NZDJPY | (1) | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | D | 2 | ||
NZDCHF | (1) | (1) | (1) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
NZDCAD | 1 | 1 | (1) | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
S&P | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
GOLD | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
SILVER | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
CRUDE | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |||
30YR | 1 | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (1) | |||
COPPER | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
CHARTS
-price bar chart
-base currency 10 yr interest rate in green
-counter currency 10 yr interest rate in red
-interest rate differential in black
-indicator that measures change in interest rate differential and change in price over 20 days is in blue (high levels indicate buying opportunities, low levels selling opportunities)-referred to as JSINT
- 14 day RSI
Euro / US Dollar
Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele
Jamie - Having broken through the resistance line that extends off of the 2008 and 2009 highs, a longer term change in trend must be considered. What’s more, RSI (weekly 13) confirms the new high. Resistance should be strong up to 14579. The 61.8% retracement of the entire decline form 16000 is at 14450 and the 2010 is 14579. The area surrounding 14500 has been important since 2007, serving as support and resistance. Near term expectations are for consolidation and weakness from 14500 before continued strength. 14350 and 14250 are supports. JSINT is bullish but stretched to levels that have previously indicated tops.
Joel - The market remains well bid for now and is in the process of contemplating the establishment above critical medium-term resistance in the form of the November 2010 peak at 1.4280. Daily studies still show room to run and above 1.4280, and there is very little in the way of any meaningful obstacles until the 2010 high at 1.4580. Still, there is the possibility that the market stalls out above 1.4400, but a break back and close below critical 2011 rising trend-line support at 1.4200 will be required at a minimum to relieve current topside pressures.
British Pound / US Dollar
Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele
Jamie – While a triangle may still be unfolding from the 2009 low in the GBPUSD, it makes sense to consider a more bullish alternative given the break higher in the EURUSD. Under the proposed, the GBPUSD is working higher in a C wave that will eventually exceed 17042. Objectives are the bottom of congestion from 2008 at 17442 (intersects with channel line at end of June) and 17771 (100% extension). Near term, the 2010 high at 16457 should provoke a reaction. 16250 and 16175 are supports. JSINT is bullish.
Joel – The market appears to be comfortable trading in a loosely defined range between 1.6000 and 1.6300. Any dips below 1.6000 have been very well supported in recent days, while rallies above 1.6300 remain very well offered. For now therefore, the best strategy is to play the range and look to sell on rallies above 1.6300 and buy on dips below 1.6000. Meanwhile, a weekly close above 1.6300 or below 1.6000 will potentially warn of a break of the range. Next key topside resistance comes in by 1.6400 although as per our analysis, we expect the latest push above 1.6300 to once again be well capped over the coming sessions, in favor of yet another bearish reversal towards 1.6000.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele
Jamie – In the face of a record number of longs as reported by the CFTC through the COT report, the AUDUSD has surged through 10500. While additional strength cannot be completely dismissed, I am on the lookout for a pullback as per intraday momentum considerations. 10200/50 is now support. View the monthly forecast for a longer term perspective. JSINT is bullish but stretched to levels that have previously indicated tops.
Joel - The market appears to be comfortable trading in a loosely defined range between 1.6000 and 1.6300. Any dips below 1.6000 have been very well supported in recent days, while rallies above 1.6300 remain very well offered. For now therefore, the best strategy is to play the range and look to sell on rallies above 1.6300 and buy on dips below 1.6000. Meanwhile, a weekly close above 1.6300 or below 1.6000 will potentially warn of a break of the range. Next key topside resistance comes in by 1.6400 although as per our analysis, we expect the latest push above 1.6300 to once again be well capped over the coming sessions, in favor of yet another bearish reversal towards 1.6000.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele
Jamie – Having traded to a fresh 2011 high, a more immediately bullish outlook must be considered. There are several interpretations of wave structure from the 2009 low with the most bullish being a series of 1st and 2nd waves. The trade above February’s high confirms that weakness from the 2010 high is corrective. Focus is on buying the next dip against the March low (7114). 7460-7660 is support. JSINT is bullish.
Joel - The rally out from the mid-March 0.7100 area lows has been most impressive, with the market trading back above 0.7800 thus far ahead of the latest minor setbacks. However, any additional gains from here are seen limited, with the greater risk for some form of a medium-term lower top below 0.7900 in favor of a bearish reversal back towards and eventually below 0.7100. Look for a break and close back below 0.7735 to confirm and accelerate declines.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele
Jamie – The USDJPY has traded sideways the last few days support comes in at 8380 and 8320. Resistance from a multiyear trendline and the point at which the rally from the low would consist of 2 equal legs intersect on April 13th at 8630. Short term support is at 8385. JSINT is bullish.
Joel - It has been quite a ride in this pair, with the market initially collapsing to fresh record lows by 76.30, before reversing sharply back above 80.00, and then ultimately racing higher to break a multi-week range on the topside and potentially opening the door for a meaningful longer-term reversal. The latest break back above 84.50 is significant and could pave the way for additional gains ahead, although daily studies have reached overbought levels and buying on dips back towards the daily Ichimoku cloud top (83.00 area) would be the preferred strategy. Next key resistance comes in by the September 2010 highs at 85.90.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele
Jamie – Focus for the USDCAD remains on a downward sloping trendline, which is at 9430 this week. Near term, the USDCAD is testing a short term support line and a bounce would encounter resistance near 9623, which intersects with resistance lines on Monday. JSINT is bearish.
Joel - Any recoveries in this market have been short-lived, with the price dropping back below 0.9600 in recent trade to fresh multi-month lows in the 0.9500’s. However, despite the weakness, we see risks for additional declines from here as limited, with the greater risk for the formation of a longer-term higher low above 0.9055 ahead of the next major upside extension beyond 0.9975 and back through parity. Ultimately, only a daily close below 0.9500 would delay.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele
Jamie – The rally from the low is constructive and could be an initial impulse in a much larger advance. But, a drop to a new low would shift focus to a downward sloping support line which is not until the low 80s (8300 this month). 9200 and 9300 are near term resistance levels and a move above 9784 is needed in order to suggest that a major low is in place. JSINT is bearish.
Joel - The latest break to fresh record lows below 0.9000 (0.8910) is certainly concerning and threatens our longer-term recovery outlook. Still, we do not see setbacks extending much further and continue to favor the formation of some form of a material base over the coming weeks for an eventual break back above parity. Look for the market to hold above 0.9100 on a daily close basis, while back above 0.9370 will officially confirm reversal prospects and accelerate gains. Only a break and weekly close below the recent record spike lows at 0.8910 ultimately delays outlook.
Euro / Japanese Yen
Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele
Jamie – The EURJPY has reached and exceeded the post flash crash (from May 2010) recovery (12228). The extent of the advance makes it quite likely that a major multi year low is in place and new uptrend is underway. The next objectives are 12590 and 12790. The former is where the break from the 11566 would equal the width of the prior range. 12790 is the April 2010 high. Weakness is most certainly overdue on a short term basis but picking this top is not for the faint of heart. It often takes several attempts but I believe it worth a shot here. Supports are 12075 then 11920-12005. JSINT is bullish.
.
Joel - The market has finally taken out some critical multi-week range resistance in the 116.00 area and we believe this to be a significant medium-term development. The break above 116.00 now suggests that a major base is in place with fresh upside now projected back towards the 125.00 area over the coming days. Daily studies are however now showing overbought and we would not at all be surprised to see some form of a pullback in the early week. Look for any inter-day pullbacks to be well supported ahead of 115.00.
Euro / British Pound
Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele
Jamie – The break above long term trendline resistance points to additional gains for the EURGBP. The 20 day average has held the last 4 days but 8670 would be support if needed. Focus is on the November high of 8940, followed by the confluence of the 100% extension of the 8066-8940 rally and March 2010 high at 9050/60. This level intersects with parallel channel resistance in early May. JSINT is bullish
Joel - The latest sharp rally back above 0.8800 is concerning for our broader bearish outlook, with the market breaking back above a major falling trend-line from the 2009 peak. However, we will hold on to our bearish outlook for now, and look for a fresh medium-term lower top in the 0.8800’s and somewhere below the previous medium-term lower top at 0.8940 in anticipation of a bearish resumption. Ultimately, only back above 0.8940 negates.
Source
http://www.dailyfx.com
